Sabres vs Sharks Player Props: Buffalo Has a Macklin Celebrini Problem

Buffalo's season hasn't exactly gone according to plan.

The Sabres enter Tuesday with a 4-4-3 record, having dropped three consecutive games. Their latest defeat came against Washington on Saturday, when they surrendered a 2-0 lead before eventually losing 4-3 in overtime.

It's becoming a familiar story.

Buffalo has struggled to put together complete performances, and its defensive numbers are particularly concerning.

The Sabres are allowing 3.6 goals per game, while their penalty kill has successfully defended just 69.2% of opposing opportunities.

That's a potentially serious problem against San Jose.

The Sharks have converted 26.8% of their power-play opportunities this season, making special teams one of their biggest strengths.

San Jose isn't exactly a finished product, either.

The Sharks have repeatedly struggled to protect leads, surrendering two-goal advantages in four separate games. They're also coming off a 6-4 defeat against Boston.

Nevertheless, there's a difference between struggling defensively and lacking offensive talent.

San Jose certainly doesn't have the latter problem.

Celebrini, Will Smith, and Ivar Stenberg give the Sharks an exciting young combination, and I'm particularly interested in what they can accomplish against Buffalo's struggling defense.

Five goals, ten assists, and 15 points in ten games. Celebrini has been everything San Jose could have hoped for, and probably a little more.

He's recorded multiple points in five appearances this season, including three-point performances against Detroit and Montreal earlier this month.

Celebrini also leads the Sharks with 40 shots on goal and averages nearly 23 minutes of ice time per game.

Those numbers tell us something important.

This isn't a player relying on occasional opportunities or an unusually favorable shooting percentage. He's involved in virtually everything San Jose does offensively.

He's expected to center the first line alongside Smith and Stenberg, while also operating on the Sharks' top power-play unit.

Against Buffalo, that's an intriguing combination.

The Sabres have struggled to defend opposing power plays, and their goaltending hasn't offered much protection.

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has an .866 save percentage through his first nine appearances, while Colten Ellis has struggled in limited action.

Neither represents an especially intimidating matchup.

There's also the question of Celebrini's home production.

He's averaged two points per game across his first four home appearances this season, compared with 1.2 on the road.

It's a small sample, but certainly encouraging ahead of Tuesday's game.

There are three interesting ways to approach Celebrini's performance on Polymarket US.

Macklin Celebrini — 2+ Points

This is my preferred selection.

Celebrini has registered multiple points in five of his first ten games, and his contract is available at 44¢.

The combination of Buffalo's defensive struggles, poor penalty killing, and San Jose's effective power play makes this an appealing matchup.

Celebrini has the ability to score himself or create opportunities for teammates, giving him several paths to a multi-point performance.

Of course, two points isn't an easy requirement.

He's also gone scoreless in three of his previous six appearances, so there's considerable variation in his production.

Nevertheless, I think the matchup gives him a reasonable opportunity to outperform the current market price.

Macklin Celebrini — 1+ Assist

Celebrini has recorded ten assists this season, including at least one in six appearances.

Polymarket US has his 1+ assist contract at 60¢.

The special-teams matchup makes this particularly interesting.

With Buffalo's penalty kill operating below 70%, Celebrini should have opportunities to create chances for Smith, Stenberg, and San Jose's other offensive contributors.

However, there's one important distinction.

Ten assists in ten games doesn't mean Celebrini records an assist every night.

He's reached that mark in six appearances, meaning the 60¢ price isn't quite as attractive as his season totals might initially suggest.

I prefer the higher potential return offered by his 2+ points market.

Macklin Celebrini — 1+ Goal

Celebrini's goal-scoring numbers are also encouraging.

He's scored five times this season, finding the net in four separate appearances.

His 1+ goal market currently sits at 42¢.

That isn't unreasonable considering Buffalo's goaltending difficulties, but it's not my favorite option.

Celebrini has generated 40 shots through ten games, and his shooting percentage is a fairly sustainable 12.5%.

He certainly has the ability to score against this opponent.

However, at a price only slightly below his 2+ points contract, I'd rather support Celebrini's overall offensive production.

Two points will be more difficult to achieve than one goal, but his playmaking ability provides another route to delivering.